Monetary Policy
On the eve of the 1990, 2001 and 2007 recessions, many economists asserted that the
US was on the cusp of achieving a soft landing, where rising interest rates limited
inflation without causing a recession. The Fed held off from additional rate hikes this
month while signaling there may be room for another hike this year depending on how
the economy evolves and its assessment of the effects of tightening in financial
conditions that have already occurred. History shows that to the contrary soft landings
are rare. Since World War II the US has achieved only one durable soft landing in 1995.
Investors need to be prepared for more risk asset volatility.
Macro Economy
With the major central banks administering tighter monetary policy the macroeconomy
effects have been uneven but consistent in trend with lower trade volumes. China’s
Communist Party is under increasing pressure on two fronts: 1) an increasing number
of jobless well-trained youth who remain unemployed and 2) an imploding residential
real estate market. In an effort to prevent further spiraling of the real estate market
and stimulate an economy that has never fully recovered from strenuous covid
lockdowns China has begun lowering interest rates. Being the largest single contributor
in the global supply chain, the continued weakness in the Chinese economy and
Chinese exports may be an indicator of the impending monetary strain which may
become more widespread throughout the entire global economy.
Markets
Risk assets have entered a natural corrective phase since mid-August:
**to be updated**
S&P 500 +11%
NASDAQ +33%
Dow +1%
Bitcoin +60%
Commodities (CRB) +2%
Gold +3%
Gold Sector and Tactical Trades
Gold has shown minor weakness in contrast to the rising nominal rate environment,
staying range bound between the $1,800/oz and 2,000/oz level and inline with spot
movements seen throughout the year. We continue to find US treasuries attractive at
this time and will continue to roll- month by month until Gold and Gold Equities
approach a more attractive support level as indicated by our models. The October
November window could be a launch point for that shift according to seasonal trends.
⚠ Disclaimer: https://www.agiodigital.com/legal-disclaimer